# kaal:claim:3808852-005

**Claim.** The centralization of scientific methods and output has produced suboptimal outcomes for society, as evidenced by widespread irreproducibility, by non-expert forecasters often outperforming experts, and by random stock selection outperforming expert selection.

**Type.** empirical  **Support.** evidenced

**Source quote.**

> Non-expert forecasters are often better than expert forecasters.2 Random selection of stocks can produce superior results in comparison with expert selection.3

**From.** Wulf A. Kaal, *Decentralization and Feedback Effects* (2021), II. Decentralization of Science, page 5

**Cite as.** Wulf A. Kaal, Decentralization and Feedback Effects (2021). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3808852

**Verify.** sha256 of source PDF `31e91158fdeefebc2f0be54ebf89751f7cdd4c89ecea932888f5ba9be6b1caba` at https://raw.githubusercontent.com/wulfkaal/Academic-Papers/main/papers/pdf/Kaal%20-%202021%20-%20Decentralization%20and%20Feedback%20Effects.pdf

**Failure mode.** expert opinion underperformance  (family: research-design-limitation)

**Topics.** decentralization

**Keywords.** expert-failure, reproducibility-crisis, forecasting, science-centralization

**Canonical form.** This markdown file is the canonical hashed representation of the claim. Its sha256 is the content hash used for attestation.