# kaal:claim:7322599-017

**Claim.** Along the strict long-match equilibrium envelope, stake size should show no positive marginal association with credible capacity, and in exit-shaped settings a larger refundable principal is predicted to shrink credible capacity, not to be inert.

**Type.** predictive  **Support.** argued

**Holds when.**

- credible capacity, not observed misconduct rates

**Source quote.**

> Accordingly, along the model’s strict long-match equilibrium envelope, stake size should not have a positive marginal association with credible capacity, and in exit-shaped settings the total slope is strictly negative: a larger refundable principal is not predicted to be inert; it is predicted to shrink credible capacity.

**From.** Wulf A. Kaal, *Refundable Stake Does Not Expand Deterrent Capacity in Long-Lived Delegation: Collateral, Premia, and Pseudonymous Markets* (2026), 6 The regime map and the capacity prediction, page 9

**Cite as.** Wulf A. Kaal, Refundable Stake Does Not Expand Deterrent Capacity in Long-Lived Delegation: Collateral, Premia, and Pseudonymous Markets (2026). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=7322599

**Verify.** sha256 of source PDF `130ee4e65fb79a9f3a96f6df22408b40c2de76e9ec8fc2bd1c68f0f6a7104333` at https://raw.githubusercontent.com/wulfkaal/Academic-Papers/main/papers/pdf/Kaal%20-%202026%20-%20Refundable%20Stake%20Does%20Not%20Expand%20Deterrent%20Capacity%20in%20Long-Lived%20Delegation%20Collateral%2C%20Premia%2C%20and%20Pseudonymous%20Markets.pdf

**Topics.** economics, risk-and-incentives, empirical-evidence

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