{
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 "@type": "DefinedTerm",
 "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/entities/black-swan-events",
 "identifier": "kaal:entity:black-swan-events",
 "name": "Black swan events",
 "termCode": "black-swan-events",
 "inDefinedTermSet": {
  "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/entities/index.json"
 },
 "author": {
  "@type": "Person",
  "name": "Wulf A. Kaal",
  "identifier": "https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0757-275X"
 },
 "dateModified": "2026-07-29",
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 "sha256": "c32646a71cc56079db6cb48e23267a4f54e5e8985fccce3d7354c1a26b9c55b7",
 "additionalProperty": [
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   "name": "status",
   "value": "derived"
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   "name": "claim_count",
   "value": 2
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  },
  {
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   "name": "year_span",
   "value": [
    "2019",
    "2019"
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   "value": 0
  }
 ],
 "subjectOf": [
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/3402701-030",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:3402701-030",
   "text": "For any long-lived currency, a major shift in perceived value is eventually inevitable, and such a shift is not covered by reserves defending against hot money or by bonds defending against temporary economic instability.",
   "abstract": "For any long-lived currency a major shift in the perception of the value of a currency is at some point inevitable; a shift that is not accounted for by a reserve defending against hot money fluctuations or bonds defending against temporary instability in the larger economy",
   "citation": "Craig Calcaterra, Wulf A. Kaal, Vadhindran K. Rao, Stable Cryptocurrencies - First Order Principles (2019). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3402701",
   "datePublished": "2019",
   "claim_type": "predictive",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": true,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "long-lived currencies",
    "black swan events"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "72ed2581b4cac2bd18a5b2640be959487a3cbc34c86ab5e5664924bcdb53c8e0",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/3402701-031",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:3402701-031",
   "text": "When a fundamental shift in value occurs, repegging the currency at its more accurate value is more efficient than soldiering on with tax mechanisms to restabilize at the old peg.",
   "abstract": "but it is more efficient to repeg the currency after discovering its more accurate value",
   "citation": "Craig Calcaterra, Wulf A. Kaal, Vadhindran K. Rao, Stable Cryptocurrencies - First Order Principles (2019). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3402701",
   "datePublished": "2019",
   "claim_type": "design",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "fundamental change in the economy, black swan event"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "72ed2581b4cac2bd18a5b2640be959487a3cbc34c86ab5e5664924bcdb53c8e0",
   "status": "current"
  }
 ],
 "description": "2 claims in the published works of Wulf A. Kaal carry the concept tag 'black-swan-events'. Derived node: a roster, not an adjudicated definition."
}