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 "identifier": "kaal:entity:causal-inference",
 "name": "Causal inference",
 "termCode": "causal-inference",
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 "author": {
  "@type": "Person",
  "name": "Wulf A. Kaal",
  "identifier": "https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0757-275X"
 },
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  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2389416-009",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2389416-009",
   "text": "No prior study had analyzed the performance implications of hedge fund adviser regulation, making this the first estimate of the causal effect of the Dodd-Frank Act registration requirement on hedge fund returns.",
   "abstract": "To our knowledge, no other study has analyzed the implications of hedge fund adviser regulation.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Barbara Luppi, Sandra Paterlini, Did the Dodd-Frank Act Impact Hedge Fund Performance (2014). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2389416",
   "datePublished": "2014",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "asserted",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "as of the paper's 2014 version"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "0e1c4615b104821577498d9655de43b9c5c3e985bb0215f56c038b8232be65c3",
   "status": "current"
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  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2715083-027",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2715083-027",
   "text": "The confluence trends identified are correlational, not causal: the author expressly disclaims any claim of cause and effect and presents the peripheral effects as long term possibilities warranting monitoring.",
   "abstract": "The emerging process of confluence of mutual and hedge funds can have unexpected peripheral effects that may themselves reinforce confluence of the two asset classes. I do not claim cause and effect in this context.",
   "citation": "Kaal, Confluence of Mutual and Private Funds (2016). SSRN: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2715083",
   "datePublished": "2016",
   "claim_type": "definitional",
   "confidence": "asserted",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "scope limitation stated by the author for the entire implications analysis"
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   "status": "current"
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  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2816408-016",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2816408-016",
   "text": "The study identifies the causal effect of Title IV by treating the March 30, 2012 registration effective date combined with the $150 million AUM threshold as an exogenous regulatory shock, so that any discontinuity in returns at the cutoff is evidence of a causal treatment effect.",
   "abstract": "The basic idea behind the RD design is that any discontinuity in the conditional distribution of Yi as a function of Xi at the cutoff value c is interpreted as evidence of a causal effect of the treatment.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Barbara Luppi, Sandra Paterlini, Did the Dodd-Frank Act Impact Private Fund Performance  – Evidence from 2010 – 2015 (2016). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2816408",
   "datePublished": "2016",
   "claim_type": "design",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "sharp regression discontinuity design",
    "forcing variable is log AUM with threshold at $150 million",
    "treatment date March 30, 2012"
   ],
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  }
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 "description": "3 claims in the published works of Wulf A. Kaal carry the concept tag 'causal-inference'. Derived node: a roster, not an adjudicated definition."
}