{
 "@context": "https://schema.org",
 "@type": "DefinedTerm",
 "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/entities/forecasting",
 "identifier": "kaal:entity:forecasting",
 "name": "Forecasting",
 "termCode": "forecasting",
 "inDefinedTermSet": {
  "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/entities/index.json"
 },
 "author": {
  "@type": "Person",
  "name": "Wulf A. Kaal",
  "identifier": "https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0757-275X"
 },
 "dateModified": "2026-07-29",
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   "name": "status",
   "value": "derived"
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   "value": 4
  },
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   "value": 4
  },
  {
   "@type": "PropertyValue",
   "name": "year_span",
   "value": [
    "2016",
    "2025"
   ]
  },
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   "name": "non_current_claims",
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  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2732915-036",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2732915-036",
   "text": "Half of the respondents indicated that the Dodd-Frank registration and disclosure rules create higher costs that will affect their funds over the next five years, while 17.4 percent expected no effect and 6.5 percent expected lower returns.",
   "abstract": "while 17.4% believed there was no effect and 6.5% suggest the effect is lower returns, 50% indicated that the Dodd- Frank registration and disclosure rules create higher costs that affect their funds.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, The Private Fund Industry Five Years after the Dodd-Frank Act – A Survey Study (2016). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2732915",
   "datePublished": "2016",
   "claim_type": "predictive",
   "confidence": "evidenced",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "respondents forecasting the next five years"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "643658c02f6625bca35595696116d0ad74d681ed8579c644832ae4a88b2a8c14",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/3808852-005",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:3808852-005",
   "text": "The centralization of scientific methods and output has produced suboptimal outcomes for society, as evidenced by widespread irreproducibility, by non-expert forecasters often outperforming experts, and by random stock selection outperforming expert selection.",
   "abstract": "Non-expert forecasters are often better than expert forecasters.2 Random selection of stocks can produce superior results in comparison with expert selection.3",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Decentralization and Feedback Effects (2021). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3808852",
   "datePublished": "2021",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "evidenced",
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   "scope_conditions": [],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "31e91158fdeefebc2f0be54ebf89751f7cdd4c89ecea932888f5ba9be6b1caba",
   "status": "current"
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   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/4900878-023",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:4900878-023",
   "text": "Traditional economic models fail to predict cryptocurrency price movements accurately, because token values swing rapidly on market sentiment, regulatory news, technological change, and macroeconomic trends, which are inherently unpredictable.",
   "abstract": "Traditional economic models often struggle to accurately predict these fluctuations due to their inherent unpredictability.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Quantum Economy and Tokenomics (2024). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4900878",
   "datePublished": "2024",
   "claim_type": "failure",
   "confidence": "asserted",
   "is_failure_mode": true,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "volatile decentralized cryptocurrency markets"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "75bf96d3b751b4ad0a6ca4a32591cf026094f113e3a372aa6c61790941b391f7",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/5095633-001",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:5095633-001",
   "text": "The accessible reserves of publicly available human-created text usable for training large language models could be exhausted by 2028 at current usage trajectories.",
   "abstract": "the accessible reserves of publicly available human-created text could be exhausted by 2028, given current usage trajectories.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Artificial Intelligence The Final Frontier (2025). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5095633",
   "datePublished": "2025",
   "claim_type": "predictive",
   "confidence": "evidenced",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "current growth trajectories in training set size continue",
    "restricted to publicly available human-created text"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "cbb484711f89bcefc9fc6a5730a1ed0a3f764d7999ad9b6f7d8ea05634c26c63",
   "status": "current"
  }
 ],
 "description": "4 claims in the published works of Wulf A. Kaal carry the concept tag 'forecasting'. Derived node: a roster, not an adjudicated definition."
}