{
 "@context": "https://schema.org",
 "@type": "DefinedTerm",
 "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/entities/hindsight-bias",
 "identifier": "kaal:entity:hindsight-bias",
 "name": "Hindsight bias",
 "termCode": "hindsight-bias",
 "inDefinedTermSet": {
  "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/entities/index.json"
 },
 "author": {
  "@type": "Person",
  "name": "Wulf A. Kaal",
  "identifier": "https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0757-275X"
 },
 "dateModified": "2026-07-29",
 "canonicalForm": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/entities/hindsight-bias.md",
 "sha256": "4e4098818f759527529b06d39038a6b3b9bd742c795efa5aaafa448deb83b1fd",
 "additionalProperty": [
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   "value": "derived"
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   "value": 2
  },
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   "value": 2
  },
  {
   "@type": "PropertyValue",
   "name": "year_span",
   "value": [
    "2010",
    "2016"
   ]
  },
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  }
 ],
 "subjectOf": [
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/1558614-012",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:1558614-012",
   "text": "Hindsight bias exerts a stronger influence on how excessive risk is defined in countries culturally predisposed to dwell on their own past, while countries oriented toward a future unlike the past more easily dismiss earlier financial lessons as irrelevant.",
   "abstract": "Hindsight bias and other concep- tual approaches rooted in past experience—including valid lessons learned from past experience—may exert a more powerful influence in a country that is otherwise predisposed to be concerned with its past",
   "citation": "Painter and Kaal, Initial Reflections on an Evolving Standard Constraints on Risk Taking by Directors and Officers in (2010). SSRN: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1558614",
   "datePublished": "2010",
   "claim_type": "mechanism",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "applies to the ex post characterization of risk as excessive"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "e898211630f4116879329d6de8397523dca5b066864147421aa5cbc7429dc83b",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2811718-029",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2811718-029",
   "text": "Claims in which investors use hindsight to second guess due diligence practices often fail, even when the manager was clearly incompetent.",
   "abstract": "Claims that involve investors using hindsight to second guess the due diligence practice often fail (even in the face of clearly incompetent management), as seen in South Cherry Street,",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Private Fund Investor Due Diligence – Evidence from 1995 to 2015 (2016). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2811718",
   "datePublished": "2016",
   "claim_type": "failure",
   "confidence": "evidenced",
   "is_failure_mode": true,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "securities fraud claims",
    "South Cherry Street"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "b52152af561288173840a1cabbcf8f4b337e73507c856ee01600799073f4156f",
   "status": "current"
  }
 ],
 "description": "2 claims in the published works of Wulf A. Kaal carry the concept tag 'hindsight-bias'. Derived node: a roster, not an adjudicated definition."
}