{
 "@context": "https://schema.org",
 "@type": "DefinedTerm",
 "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/entities/investor-reaction",
 "identifier": "kaal:entity:investor-reaction",
 "name": "Investor reaction",
 "termCode": "investor-reaction",
 "inDefinedTermSet": {
  "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/entities/index.json"
 },
 "author": {
  "@type": "Person",
  "name": "Wulf A. Kaal",
  "identifier": "https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0757-275X"
 },
 "dateModified": "2026-07-29",
 "canonicalForm": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/entities/investor-reaction.md",
 "sha256": "992cbb0a13d6811858ee19fb955337bb8f02edb8d19fcc0f8e77546927e23bfe",
 "additionalProperty": [
  {
   "@type": "PropertyValue",
   "name": "status",
   "value": "derived"
  },
  {
   "@type": "PropertyValue",
   "name": "claim_count",
   "value": 11
  },
  {
   "@type": "PropertyValue",
   "name": "work_count",
   "value": 1
  },
  {
   "@type": "PropertyValue",
   "name": "year_span",
   "value": [
    "2015",
    "2015"
   ]
  },
  {
   "@type": "PropertyValue",
   "name": "non_current_claims",
   "value": 0
  }
 ],
 "subjectOf": [
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-005",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-005",
   "text": "Investors react negatively to impending N/DPA driven changes in the period before the agreement is executed, but once the N/DPA is executed they generally treat it as a positive event for the firm.",
   "abstract": "Our results suggest that while investors consistently react negatively to impending N/DPA changes prior to N/DPA execution, post N/DPA execution, investors generally do perceive N/DPAs as a positive event for the respective entity.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "evidenced",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "pre-execution versus post-execution windows around the DOJ announcement"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-006",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-006",
   "text": "Investors treat the expiration of an N/DPA term as a negative event for the firm.",
   "abstract": "Inversely, our results suggest that investors see the expiry of applicable N/DPA terms as a negative event.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "evidenced",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "end of N/DPA term date, ENDPAT",
    "reduced sample of 59 firms where the end date fell on a trading day"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-019",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-019",
   "text": "The negative pricing of N/DPA firms immediately before the announcement reflects the market's negative assessment of the agreement and its associated fines, plausibly driven by uncertainty in the days before the announcement resolves it.",
   "abstract": "This data suggests that the market assesses the impact of the N/DPA and the often associated fines negatively immediately before the announcement of the N/DPA execution, which could be a function of market uncertainty before the N/DPA announcement.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "mechanism",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "days immediately preceding ANDPAE"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-020",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-020",
   "text": "The positive post-announcement reaction is best read as the market rewarding both the end of a costly DOJ investigation and the governance terms the N/DPA is expected to impose.",
   "abstract": "the positive market reaction from t=0 to t=25 as a positive reaction to the end of the costly DOJ investigation and the anticipated governance terms imposed by the N/DPA.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "mechanism",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "window t=0 to t=25 after the DOJ announcement"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-021",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-021",
   "text": "Immediately before the N/DPA term becomes effective, from day minus three to day minus one, the market prices the onset of the term as a negative event.",
   "abstract": "suggests that the market assesses the impact of the beginning of the N/DPA term as a negative event immediately before the N/DPAs become effective from t=-3 to t=-1.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "evidenced",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "window immediately preceding BNDPAT"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-024",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-024",
   "text": "Negative returns after the end of the N/DPA term are evidence that investors regard the expiration of the term, and the consequent unenforceability of the associated governance improvements, as bad news for the firm.",
   "abstract": "We interpret the negative N/DPA firms' CARs from t=1 to t=15 in Figures 4 and 4a as evidence that investors see the expiration of the N/DPA term and the expiration and following unenforceability of associated governance improvements as a negative event for the respective entity.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "mechanism",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "days t=1 to t=15 after ENDPAT"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-025",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-025",
   "text": "The authors reject Hypothesis 1: they find no evidence that the market reacts negatively to the N/DPA announcement and the start of the term and positively to the end of the term, contrary to the cost-imposition view of N/DPAs.",
   "abstract": "There is no evidence to support Hypothesis 1: The market does not react negatively at ANDPAE (E1a) and BNDPAT (E1b) and positively at ENDPAT (E1c).",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "evidenced",
   "is_failure_mode": true,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "94 firm sample, three event dates"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-026",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-026",
   "text": "The data support Hypothesis 2: the market reacts positively at the DOJ announcement and at the start of the N/DPA term and negatively at the end of the term.",
   "abstract": "Figures 2 to 4a support Hypothesis 2: The market reacts positively at ANDPAE (E1a) and BNDPAT (E1b) and negatively at ENDPAT (E1c).",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "evidenced",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "evidence drawn from Figures 2 through 4a",
    "94 firm sample, 59 firms at ENDPAT"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-027",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-027",
   "text": "The positive market reaction at announcement and at the start of the term is the market acknowledging that an N/DPA gives the firm an opportunity to be better managed, more compliant, and less exposed to penalties.",
   "abstract": "Consistent with Hypothesis 2, we interpret the positive market reaction at ANDPA and BNDPAT as the market's acknowledgement that the execution and effectiveness of an N/DPA is an opportunity for the entity to be better managed, more compliant, with fewer possibilities to incur penalties",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "mechanism",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "post-announcement and post-start-of-term windows"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-028",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-028",
   "text": "The negative market reaction at the end of the N/DPA term is the market acknowledging that suboptimal governance practices are likely to resume once the term expires.",
   "abstract": "In turn, we interpret the negative market reaction at ENDPAT in Figures 4 and 4a as the market's acknowledgment that post N/DPA term expiration suboptimal governance practices are likely to continue",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "mechanism",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": true,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "post-expiration windows in Figures 4 and 4a"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-030",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-030",
   "text": "The paired positive reaction at the start and negative reaction at the end of the N/DPA term is direct evidence that N/DPA mandated governance changes matter to investors.",
   "abstract": "We interpret the positive market reaction at BNDPAT and its negative reaction at ENDPAT as evidence that governance changes mandated by N/DPAs matter.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "mechanism",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "governance changes are effective and mandatory only during the N/DPA term"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  }
 ],
 "description": "11 claims in the published works of Wulf A. Kaal carry the concept tag 'investor-reaction'. Derived node: a roster, not an adjudicated definition."
}