{
 "@context": "https://schema.org",
 "@type": "DefinedTerm",
 "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/entities/ndpa",
 "identifier": "kaal:entity:ndpa",
 "name": "Ndpa",
 "termCode": "ndpa",
 "inDefinedTermSet": {
  "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/entities/index.json"
 },
 "author": {
  "@type": "Person",
  "name": "Wulf A. Kaal",
  "identifier": "https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0757-275X"
 },
 "dateModified": "2026-07-29",
 "canonicalForm": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/entities/ndpa.md",
 "sha256": "5910ba0c9c590a5ebfa35d36d4afb4119cfbd7b24b379e43c302ebb00c65b0d7",
 "additionalProperty": [
  {
   "@type": "PropertyValue",
   "name": "status",
   "value": "derived"
  },
  {
   "@type": "PropertyValue",
   "name": "claim_count",
   "value": 20
  },
  {
   "@type": "PropertyValue",
   "name": "work_count",
   "value": 1
  },
  {
   "@type": "PropertyValue",
   "name": "year_span",
   "value": [
    "2015",
    "2015"
   ]
  },
  {
   "@type": "PropertyValue",
   "name": "non_current_claims",
   "value": 0
  }
 ],
 "subjectOf": [
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-001",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-001",
   "text": "Stock prices respond significantly and predictably in a positive direction to the DOJ press release announcing execution of a non- or deferred prosecution agreement and to the start of the N/DPA term.",
   "abstract": "We document a significant and predictable positive stock price response to the DOJ press release and the start of the N/DPA term.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "evidenced",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "publicly traded U.S. firms that executed N/DPAs between 1993 and 2015",
    "event windows measured around the DOJ press release date and the start date of the N/DPA term"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-002",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-002",
   "text": "The market does not price the three defining N/DPA events in isolation; it treats the announcement, the start of the term, and the end of the term as sequential and conditional events.",
   "abstract": "Our tests indicate that the market interprets the three events not in isolation but as sequential and conditional events.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "evidenced",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "sample of 94 publicly traded N/DPA firms, 1993 to 2015"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-003",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-003",
   "text": "Investor response to N/DPAs is not uniform: it varies with the firm's industry, the severity of the financial fine, and the extent of the governance improvements the N/DPA mandates.",
   "abstract": "We also find that investor's response differs depending on the industry and severity of financial fines and N/DPA mandated governance improvements.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "evidenced",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "ten industry sub-clusters in the sample",
    "partitions relative to median fines and median governance intensity"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-004",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-004",
   "text": "There is no systematic price momentum beyond the three core N/DPA event dates, which the authors read as evidence that the market is reasonably efficient with respect to N/DPA information.",
   "abstract": "We observe no systematic price momentum beyond the three core dates identified in our study, implying that the market is reasonably efficient with respect to information about N/DPAs.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "evidenced",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "information about N/DPAs specifically",
    "sample of publicly traded N/DPA firms, 1993 to 2015"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-005",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-005",
   "text": "Investors react negatively to impending N/DPA driven changes in the period before the agreement is executed, but once the N/DPA is executed they generally treat it as a positive event for the firm.",
   "abstract": "Our results suggest that while investors consistently react negatively to impending N/DPA changes prior to N/DPA execution, post N/DPA execution, investors generally do perceive N/DPAs as a positive event for the respective entity.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "evidenced",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "pre-execution versus post-execution windows around the DOJ announcement"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-006",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-006",
   "text": "Investors treat the expiration of an N/DPA term as a negative event for the firm.",
   "abstract": "Inversely, our results suggest that investors see the expiry of applicable N/DPA terms as a negative event.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "evidenced",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "end of N/DPA term date, ENDPAT",
    "reduced sample of 59 firms where the end date fell on a trading day"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-007",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-007",
   "text": "The combination of a positive market reaction at the start of the N/DPA term and a negative reaction at its end is evidence that the governance changes N/DPAs mandate actually matter to firm value.",
   "abstract": "We interpret the positive market reaction at the beginning of the N/DPA term and investors' negative reaction at the end of the N/DPA term as evidence that governance changes mandated by N/DPAs matter.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "mechanism",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "governance changes become mandatory at the start of the term and unenforceable at its end"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-009",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-009",
   "text": "The study's hand-selected dataset covers all institutions that executed N/DPAs from 1993 to 2015, a population of 330 agreements, of which 94 involved publicly traded firms usable for stock price tests.",
   "abstract": "Our hand-selected dataset comprises all institutions that executed N/DPAs from 1993 to 2015 (N=330) and are publicly traded (N=94).",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "evidenced",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "publicly available N/DPAs recorded in the University of Virginia Law Library database",
    "stock price data availability limits the tested sample to 94 firms"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-010",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-010",
   "text": "The U.S. financial corporations subject to N/DPAs collectively exceed $690 billion in market capitalization and more than $20 trillion in assets under management, making N/DPA governance intervention economically consequential.",
   "abstract": "The collective market capitalization of U.S. financial corporations that are subject to NDPAs exceeds $690 billion and exceeds over $20 trillion in assets under management (Copland 2012).",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "evidenced",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "U.S. financial corporations subject to N/DPAs as of the Copland 2012 count"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-011",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-011",
   "text": "This is the first study to examine stock price reactions to non- and deferred prosecution agreements, using all publicly available N/DPAs across several industries from 1993 to 2015 (N=330).",
   "abstract": "This is the first study that examines stock price reactions to N/DPAs. Our hand- selected dataset contains all publicly available N/DPAs in several industries from 1993 to 2015 (N=330).",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "asserted",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "publicly available N/DPAs across several industries"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-012",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-012",
   "text": "The event study design is appropriate for N/DPAs because the wrongdoing event is identifiable through the execution of a reasonably standardized agreement and because information about the firm's wrongdoing can change the distribution of stock returns.",
   "abstract": "(1) the event of corporate wrongdoing is identifiable through N/DPAs execution and N/DPA executions are reasonably similar in format, (2) the information pertaining to N/DPA firm wrongdoing has the potential to change the distribution of stock returns,",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "design",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "N/DPA executions are reasonably similar in format",
    "events are evenly distributed and cross-sectionally independent"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-015",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-015",
   "text": "Pre-announcement leaks about a pending N/DPA, including leaks by prosecutors, should not move markets significantly because leaked details carry no certainty or finality as to final terms or fine amount.",
   "abstract": "We assume that such leaks will not precipitate significant market movements as there is no certainty or finality as to the final terms of the NDPA and the amount of a fine.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "condition",
   "confidence": "asserted",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "leaks of fine amounts or agreement form weeks or months before the announcement"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-026",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-026",
   "text": "The data support Hypothesis 2: the market reacts positively at the DOJ announcement and at the start of the N/DPA term and negatively at the end of the term.",
   "abstract": "Figures 2 to 4a support Hypothesis 2: The market reacts positively at ANDPAE (E1a) and BNDPAT (E1b) and negatively at ENDPAT (E1c).",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "evidenced",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "evidence drawn from Figures 2 through 4a",
    "94 firm sample, 59 firms at ENDPAT"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-029",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-029",
   "text": "The data support Hypothesis 3: the market reacts positively when N/DPA governance changes become mandatory at the start of the term and negatively when they cease to be mandatory at its end.",
   "abstract": "Figures 3, 3a, 4, and 4a support Hypothesis 3: The market reacts positively at BNDPAT (E1b) and negatively at ENDPAT (E1c).",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "evidenced",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "evidence drawn from Figures 3, 3a, 4, and 4a"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-030",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-030",
   "text": "The paired positive reaction at the start and negative reaction at the end of the N/DPA term is direct evidence that N/DPA mandated governance changes matter to investors.",
   "abstract": "We interpret the positive market reaction at BNDPAT and its negative reaction at ENDPAT as evidence that governance changes mandated by N/DPAs matter.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "mechanism",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "governance changes are effective and mandatory only during the N/DPA term"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-032",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-032",
   "text": "Market reaction to N/DPAs is industry specific, supporting the hypothesis that investors in some industries are more sensitive to N/DPA effects than investors in others.",
   "abstract": "We find industry-specific effects that support Hypothesis 4.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "asserted",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "ten industry sub-clusters identified via Morningstar categories and Russell 1000 industry indices"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-033",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-033",
   "text": "Because the market reacts positively both to N/DPA announcements and to the governance improvements taking effect, the DOJ's escalation of N/DPA executions beginning in 2002 could be justified on market value grounds.",
   "abstract": "The positive market reaction to announcements of N/DPAs and to N/DPA governance improvements at the beginning of the N/DPA term suggest that the DOJ's increase in N/DPA executions, starting in 2002, could be justified.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "normative",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "holds to the extent market reaction is an acceptable measure of policy value"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-036",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-036",
   "text": "Despite wide-ranging criticism of N/DPAs on authority, fairness, and expertise grounds, scholars agree that N/DPAs do influence corporate governance.",
   "abstract": "Despite the broad critique of N/DPAs, consensus exists among scholars that N/DPAs influence corporate governance (Cunningham 2014b, Kaal and Lacine 2014, Coffee 2005, Thompson 2003).",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "asserted",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "scholarly literature on N/DPAs through 2015"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-037",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-037",
   "text": "The existing literature has barely engaged the financial market implications of N/DPAs, which is the gap this study fills.",
   "abstract": "The literature has only marginally recognized the implications of N/DPAs for financial markets.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "asserted",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "legal and governance literature on N/DPAs as of 2015"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2629451-039",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2629451-039",
   "text": "Prior coding of all publicly available N/DPAs from 1993 to 2013 across more than 230 governance categories shows that N/DPAs have a substantial effect on corporate governance.",
   "abstract": "In the largest study to date, Kaal and Lacine (2014), using a hand-selected dataset comprising all publicly available N/DPAs from 1993-2013 (N=271) in over 230 governance categories, show a substantial effect of N/DPAs on corporate governance.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Timothy Lacine, Stock Price Response to Non- and Deferred Prosecution Agreements (2015). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629451",
   "datePublished": "2015",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "evidenced",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "N=271 agreements, 1993 to 2013"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "507404d641abb922ab6d8e3a0b032e35ead2befd7b88746d09d178a8fa816957",
   "status": "current"
  }
 ],
 "description": "20 claims in the published works of Wulf A. Kaal carry the concept tag 'ndpa'. Derived node: a roster, not an adjudicated definition."
}