{
 "@context": "https://schema.org",
 "@type": "DefinedTerm",
 "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/entities/novelty",
 "identifier": "kaal:entity:novelty",
 "name": "Novelty",
 "termCode": "novelty",
 "inDefinedTermSet": {
  "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/entities/index.json"
 },
 "author": {
  "@type": "Person",
  "name": "Wulf A. Kaal",
  "identifier": "https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0757-275X"
 },
 "dateModified": "2026-07-29",
 "canonicalForm": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/entities/novelty.md",
 "sha256": "e4af64c7284efcdeac3d89b82298775a246828931db9258bac0258e91f5257c2",
 "additionalProperty": [
  {
   "@type": "PropertyValue",
   "name": "status",
   "value": "derived"
  },
  {
   "@type": "PropertyValue",
   "name": "claim_count",
   "value": 2
  },
  {
   "@type": "PropertyValue",
   "name": "work_count",
   "value": 1
  },
  {
   "@type": "PropertyValue",
   "name": "year_span",
   "value": [
    "2021",
    "2021"
   ]
  },
  {
   "@type": "PropertyValue",
   "name": "non_current_claims",
   "value": 1
  }
 ],
 "subjectOf": [
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/3782201-012",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:3782201-012",
   "text": "Suggestions that artificial intelligence will solve the rigidity of centralized reputation systems are misguided and will fail for the same reason, because neural networks are merely a complex mathematical architecture for statistical regression, which is always extremely unreliable when applied to novel situations.",
   "abstract": "Suggestions that AI will solve these problems are misguided, and will fail for the same reason. Neural networks are merely a complex mathematical ar- chitecture for performing statistical regression, which is always extremely unreliable when applied to novel situations.",
   "citation": "Craig Calcaterra, Wulf A. Kaal, Future of Decentralization (2021). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3782201",
   "datePublished": "2021",
   "claim_type": "failure",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": true,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "where new social situations continually arise that lie outside the training distribution"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "bedf7bcfbb7a9b0112b5848cb0d941b1d41f330dafeee0143a30ff5e8aa53700",
   "status": "falsified",
   "status_reason": "The claim holds that neural networks are 'always extremely unreliable when applied to novel situations.' Frontier model performance on held-out and adversarially novel tasks between 2023 and 2026 contradicts the unqualified form of this claim. The underlying institutional argument may survive; the empirical premise as stated does not.",
   "status_evidence": [
    "https://metr.org/blog/2026-1-29-time-horizon-1-1/",
    "https://arcprize.org/media/ARC_AGI_3_Technical_Report.pdf"
   ]
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/3782201-036",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:3782201-036",
   "text": "Middlemen persist rather than being automated away because there are certain junctures in business where novel problems regularly arise whenever circumstances change, requiring creative solutions that people step in to supply, and these persistent junctures become business institutions.",
   "abstract": "There are certain junctures in business where novel problems regularly arise when- ever circumstances change. These problems require creative solutions, and people step in to capitalize. These persistent junctures become business institutions.",
   "citation": "Craig Calcaterra, Wulf A. Kaal, Future of Decentralization (2021). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3782201",
   "datePublished": "2021",
   "claim_type": "mechanism",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "bedf7bcfbb7a9b0112b5848cb0d941b1d41f330dafeee0143a30ff5e8aa53700",
   "status": "current"
  }
 ],
 "description": "2 claims in the published works of Wulf A. Kaal carry the concept tag 'novelty'. Derived node: a roster, not an adjudicated definition."
}