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 "@type": "DefinedTerm",
 "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/entities/parallel-trends",
 "identifier": "kaal:entity:parallel-trends",
 "name": "Parallel trends",
 "termCode": "parallel-trends",
 "inDefinedTermSet": {
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 "author": {
  "@type": "Person",
  "name": "Wulf A. Kaal",
  "identifier": "https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0757-275X"
 },
 "dateModified": "2026-07-29",
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   "value": 2
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   "@type": "PropertyValue",
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   "value": [
    "2014",
    "2021"
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 "subjectOf": [
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2389416-036",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2389416-036",
   "text": "The parallel trends assumption required for the difference-in-differences design is satisfied, because pre-treatment performance data show the same time trends for treatment and control groups.",
   "abstract": "Using additional pre-treatment performance data, Figure 13 suggests that the trends in our dataset are the same for the treatment and control group.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Barbara Luppi, Sandra Paterlini, Did the Dodd-Frank Act Impact Hedge Fund Performance (2014). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2389416",
   "datePublished": "2014",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "evidenced",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "pre-treatment data from January 2011",
    "treatment and control defined by the $150 million AUM threshold"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "0e1c4615b104821577498d9655de43b9c5c3e985bb0215f56c038b8232be65c3",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/3936876-043",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:3936876-043",
   "text": "Centralized custody solutions and decentralized non custodial deal platforms will run in parallel until both are more established, and existing DeFi trends suggest the decentralized non custodial deal platforms will produce more innovation and better deals.",
   "abstract": "The existing trends in DeFi seem to suggest that the decentralized non-custodial deal platforms will have more innovation and better deals.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Hayley Howe, Custody of Digital Assets (2021). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3936876",
   "datePublished": "2021",
   "claim_type": "predictive",
   "confidence": "speculative",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "based on trends in DeFi as of 2021",
    "author explicitly marks the outcome as uncertain"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "9bc0903d01910460298e754c451f027df4324367359800a98ee8e638d94aff55",
   "status": "current"
  }
 ],
 "description": "2 claims in the published works of Wulf A. Kaal carry the concept tag 'parallel-trends'. Derived node: a roster, not an adjudicated definition."
}