{
 "@context": "https://schema.org",
 "@type": "DefinedTerm",
 "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/entities/predictability",
 "identifier": "kaal:entity:predictability",
 "name": "Predictability",
 "termCode": "predictability",
 "inDefinedTermSet": {
  "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/entities/index.json"
 },
 "author": {
  "@type": "Person",
  "name": "Wulf A. Kaal",
  "identifier": "https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0757-275X"
 },
 "dateModified": "2026-07-29",
 "canonicalForm": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/entities/predictability.md",
 "sha256": "f63288615a400ad3d4d1fdc01a53095d6ae9a249b872fbd6305146447873e786",
 "additionalProperty": [
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   "@type": "PropertyValue",
   "name": "status",
   "value": "derived"
  },
  {
   "@type": "PropertyValue",
   "name": "claim_count",
   "value": 4
  },
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   "value": 4
  },
  {
   "@type": "PropertyValue",
   "name": "year_span",
   "value": [
    "2010",
    "2025"
   ]
  },
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   "name": "non_current_claims",
   "value": 0
  }
 ],
 "subjectOf": [
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/1664809-003",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:1664809-003",
   "text": "The Second Circuit's conduct and effect test was too unpredictable, and a clear rule keyed to the location of the securities transaction would be more predictable for issuers and investors.",
   "abstract": "Circuit was too unpredictable. A clear rule focused on the location",
   "citation": "Richard W. Painter, Wulf A. Kaal, Extraterritorial Application of US Securities Law – Will the US Become the Default Jurisdiction for (2010). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1664809",
   "datePublished": "2010",
   "claim_type": "failure",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": true,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "cases where the location of conduct and the location of the transaction diverge"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "2d5c8c30f969f8eb613bfa1fe6888a7cfa1a452e1027bcda0489618ceac62c20",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2831040-006",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2831040-006",
   "text": "The pacing problem is partly a byproduct of the goal of legal certainty: because regulation is designed to be a durable source of predictability, rulemaking driven by legal certainty cannot keep pace as innovation accelerates.",
   "abstract": "regulation is commonly perceived as a source of predictability and is meant to last; as innovation accelerates, rulemaking driven by legal certainty cannot keep pace",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Dynamic Regulation for Innovation (2016). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2831040",
   "datePublished": "2016",
   "claim_type": "mechanism",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": true,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "accelerating innovation"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "de5156f14f44a5753cab55b6c4b03049eda58a143b99e08ef427aee1d261e1bf",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/5225296-016",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:5225296-016",
   "text": "Verifiable randomness is a necessary condition for fair block producer selection: without it, adversaries can precompute favorable outcomes and the selection process loses fairness.",
   "abstract": "The necessity of randomness stems from PoS's vulnerability to predictability; without it, adversaries could precompute favorable outcomes, undermining fairness",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Cryptographic Foundations and Interdisciplinary Dimensions of the Secure Proof of Stake (SPoS) Conse (2025). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5225296",
   "datePublished": "2025",
   "claim_type": "condition",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": true,
   "scope_conditions": [],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "b2fec675d906334ad67e13b2d97261dc31e38061022867eb3f9ceadd95f4878d",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/5886342-006",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:5886342-006",
   "text": "The Codex is grounded in legal certainty and predictability, on the reasoning that parties can only enforce rights and anticipate liabilities within a digital system if the applicable rules are knowable in advance.",
   "abstract": "(1) UDLC is grounded in the principles of legal cer- tainty and predictability, ensuring that Parties within",
   "citation": "Furrer Andreas, Wulf A. Kaal, Stephan D. Meyer, Universal Digital Law Codex (UDLC) (2025). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5886342",
   "datePublished": "2025",
   "claim_type": "design",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "parties acting within the scope of the Codex"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "dc456a1ce2ea4a356dbcb35dc900ec36be94b8c9b6da4a2c8c268d6301f66359",
   "status": "current"
  }
 ],
 "description": "4 claims in the published works of Wulf A. Kaal carry the concept tag 'predictability'. Derived node: a roster, not an adjudicated definition."
}