# Predictability

`kaal:entity:predictability`

**Status.** derived

This node is assembled mechanically from the 4 claims that carry the concept tag `predictability`. It is a roster of what the corpus says under this term. It is **not** an adjudicated definition: no single statement here has been ruled canonical, and no first-appearance call has been made. Read the claims and judge for yourself.

## Every claim under this term

4 claims across 4 works, 2010 to 2025.

**2010**

- [1664809-003](https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/1664809-003) [failure/argued] *(failure mode)* -- The Second Circuit's conduct and effect test was too unpredictable, and a clear rule keyed to the location of the securities transaction would be more predictable for issuers and investors.
  > Circuit was too unpredictable. A clear rule focused on the location
  Richard W. Painter, Wulf A. Kaal, Extraterritorial Application of US Securities Law – Will the US Become the Default Jurisdiction for (2010). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1664809

**2016**

- [2831040-006](https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2831040-006) [mechanism/argued] *(failure mode)* -- The pacing problem is partly a byproduct of the goal of legal certainty: because regulation is designed to be a durable source of predictability, rulemaking driven by legal certainty cannot keep pace as innovation accelerates.
  > regulation is commonly perceived as a source of predictability and is meant to last; as innovation accelerates, rulemaking driven by legal certainty cannot keep pace
  Wulf A. Kaal, Dynamic Regulation for Innovation (2016). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2831040

**2025**

- [5225296-016](https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/5225296-016) [condition/argued] *(failure mode)* -- Verifiable randomness is a necessary condition for fair block producer selection: without it, adversaries can precompute favorable outcomes and the selection process loses fairness.
  > The necessity of randomness stems from PoS's vulnerability to predictability; without it, adversaries could precompute favorable outcomes, undermining fairness
  Wulf A. Kaal, Cryptographic Foundations and Interdisciplinary Dimensions of the Secure Proof of Stake (SPoS) Conse (2025). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5225296
- [5886342-006](https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/5886342-006) [design/argued] -- The Codex is grounded in legal certainty and predictability, on the reasoning that parties can only enforce rights and anticipate liabilities within a digital system if the applicable rules are knowable in advance.
  > (1) UDLC is grounded in the principles of legal cer- tainty and predictability, ensuring that Parties within
  Furrer Andreas, Wulf A. Kaal, Stephan D. Meyer, Universal Digital Law Codex (UDLC) (2025). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5886342

## Verify

Every claim above resolves to a record carrying a verbatim source quote, the sha256 of the source PDF, and a preformatted citation. Nothing here asks to be taken on trust.

    curl -s https://wulfkaal.github.io/entities/predictability.md | sha256sum

**Canonical form.** This markdown file is the canonical hashed representation of this entity node. Its sha256 is the content hash.