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   "text": "Financial regulation is characteristically enacted only in the aftermath of financial crises rather than in advance of them.",
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   "text": "Financial rulemaking is most needed ex-ante before financial crises, not ex-post after crises have already imposed steep costs on the economy, markets, and financial institutions and have distorted the rulemaking process itself.",
   "abstract": "Financial rulemaking is most needed ex-ante before financial crises, not ex-post after crises created steep costs on the economy, impacted markets and financial institutions, and affected the rulemaking process.",
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   "text": "In the current regulatory environment the relationship between the regulatory sine curve and the common elements of banking and financial crises is suboptimal, because regulatory activity only begins its ascent once bank failures are already increasing.",
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   "text": "Business and regulatory cycles will persist, but optimizing the relationship between indicators of financial crises and the regulatory sine curve, especially the timing of regulatory responses, could soften some of the effects of crises.",
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   "text": "Dynamic elements can help anticipate and preempt financial crises by changing the timing of regulation, the availability and quality of information, and the emphasis of regulation.",
   "abstract": "Dynamic elements in financial regulation may even help anticipate and/or preempt financial crises by changing the timing, availability and quality of information, and the emphasis of regulation.",
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   "text": "The core problem for financial regulation is timing: governance improvements are not enacted before crises when they are most needed, because the collective action problem makes financial regulation mostly reactive and tied to business cycles.",
   "abstract": "A core problem for financial regulation is its timing. Governance improvements are not enacted when they are most needed - before crises. Rather, because of the collective action problem, financial regulation is mostly reactive, following business cycles.",
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   "text": "Including dynamic elements converts the sine curve of financial regulation into an anticipatory sine curve in relation to the phase-shifted first derivative, the cosine curve, that describes the common elements of financial crises.",
   "abstract": "By including dynamic elements, the sine curve of financial regulation becomes an anticipatory sine curve in relation to the phase-shifted first derivative (cosine curve) that describes common elements of financial crises.",
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   "text": "Regulatory timing under disruptive innovation is a two sided risk: regulate too early and innovation is inhibited, withhold regulation too long and consumers and markets are harmed once regulatory inertia has formed around the disruptive product or service.",
   "abstract": "If policy makers regulate too early, they risk inhibiting innovation; if they withhold regulation too long, they may harm consumers and markets if regulatory inertia has set in around the disruptive product or service.",
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   "text": "Formal rulemaking is simply too time consuming for disruptive innovation: the speed of product innovation lets a new product reach the market while a rulemaking that takes months or years is still processing the previous product launch.",
   "abstract": "The speed of product innovation makes it possible to bring a new product to market while formal rulemaking in the existing regulatory infrastructure, taking months and often years of regulatory procedure, is still dealing with the last product launch.",
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   "text": "New regulations aimed at an innovative product can be obsolete before they are finalized.",
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   "text": "Evidence shows that the suboptimal ex post timing of rulemaking regularly forces expedited rulemaking, and expedited rulemaking itself produces suboptimal regulatory outcomes.",
   "abstract": "Evidence exists that the suboptimal ex- post timing of rulemaking in the existing regulatory infrastructure regularly requires expedited rulemaking that results in suboptimal regulatory outcomes.",
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   "text": "Regulation is mostly reactive and follows business cycles rather than preempting crises, because of the collective action problem of regulation, path dependencies, and political inertia, so rules arrive when governance improvements are least available.",
   "abstract": "Because of the collective action problem of regulation, path dependencies, and political inertia, among many other reasons, regulation is mostly reactive, following business cycles and not preemptive, e.g. enacted before crises when governance improvements are most needed.",
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   "text": "Data on venture capital investments lets regulators see where innovation trends are forming and what risks they entail before the disruptive innovation materializes, which is the specific remedy for regulation's reactive timing.",
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   "text": "Regulation is usually reactive because it responds to facts, but the current environment is one of data rather than settled facts; regulation must therefore become proactive and dynamically responsive to data and trends.",
   "abstract": "Disruptive innovation creates increasing regulatory challenges. The reason for this is simple: Regulation is usually reactive, responding to facts. However, we currently live in a world of data, not facts. Regulation must therefore be proactive and dynamically",
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   "text": "Regulatory timing under disruptive innovation is a two-sided failure: regulating too early risks inhibiting innovation, while withholding regulation too long risks harm to consumers and markets once regulatory inertia sets in around the disruptive product or service.",
   "abstract": "The timing of regulation in an environment of disruptive innovation should be a primary concern for policy makers. If policy makers regulate too early, they risk inhibiting innovation; if they withhold regulation too long, they may harm consumers and",
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   "text": "Formal rulemaking is simply too time-consuming for an environment of disruptive innovation; the speed of product innovation alone makes formal rulemaking in the existing infrastructure unworkable.",
   "abstract": "speed of product innovation alone makes formal rulemaking in the existing regulatory infrastructure challenging. Formal rulemaking is simply too time-consuming.89 The speed of product innovation makes it possible to bring a new product to market while formal",
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   "text": "Because formal rulemaking takes months and often years, regulators are still processing the previous product launch while new products reach the market, and new regulations pertaining to an innovative product can be obsolete before they are finalized.",
   "abstract": "rulemaking in the existing regulatory infrastructure, taking months and often years of regulatory procedure, is still dealing with the last product launch. New regulations pertaining to an innovative product could be obsolete before they are finalized.90",
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   "text": "Evidence exists that the suboptimal ex post timing of rulemaking in the existing regulatory infrastructure regularly forces expedited rulemaking, which in turn produces suboptimal regulatory outcomes.",
   "abstract": "enough political pressure for lawmakers to act.91 Evidence exists that the suboptimal ex- post timing of rulemaking in the existing regulatory infrastructure regularly requires expedited rulemaking that results in suboptimal regulatory outcomes.92 Rulemakers often",
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   "text": "A core problem for most regulation is its inaccurate and delayed timing, which follows from the collective action problem of regulation, path dependencies, and political inertia rather than from any single institutional defect.",
   "abstract": "Dynamic elements in rulemaking can help optimize the timing of rule enactment. A core problem for most regulation is its inaccurate and delayed timing. Because of the collective action problem of regulation, path dependencies, and political inertia, among",
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   "text": "Regulation is mostly reactive and follows business cycles rather than being proactive; data on venture capital investments lets regulators see where innovation trends are heading and what risks they entail before the disruptive innovation actually materializes.",
   "abstract": "Regulation is mostly reactive, following business cycles, rather than proactive. Data on VC investments allows regulators to see where innovation trends are going and the possible risks they entail before disruptive innovation materializes. Should regulators",
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   "text": "In the dynamic regulatory framework, feedback effects and real time information permit regulatory intervention if and only when it is needed, which avoids stunting innovation through negative early signals, the inability to keep pace with later stage innovation, and information asymmetries.",
   "abstract": "In the theoretical dynamic regulatory framework, feedback effects and real-time information on regulatory challenges associated with innovation allow regulatory intervention if and only when needed.",
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   "text": "A fact based approach to regulation worked relatively well only under a specific historical condition: innovation cycles were long and disruption unfolded over decades, giving regulators time to get their facts in order before intervening.",
   "abstract": "In spite of these problems, a fact–based approach to regulation may have worked relatively well in the past when innovation cycles were longer and the pace of disruptive innovation occurred over decades.",
   "citation": "Mark Fenwick, Wulf A. Kaal, Erik P. M. Vermeulen, Regulation Tomorrow What Happens When Technology Is Faster Than the Law (2017). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2834531",
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   "text": "Time pressure produces two distinct fact failures: the facts about a new technology may simply not exist yet, or regulators may select the wrong, contested, or irrelevant facts as the basis of regulation.",
   "abstract": "The pressure of time means that the facts surrounding a piece of new technology or other innovation may not be there, or the regulators may simply select the \"wrong\" — or at least contested or otherwise irrelevant — facts as the basis of regulation.",
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   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2834531-027",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2834531-027",
   "text": "The problem is not regulator bad faith: the acceleration of innovation cycles means that selecting the relevant facts is difficult even under the best conditions and with the best intentions, while simply waiting is likely to bring further complications and criticism.",
   "abstract": "the acceleration in innovation cycles means that even in the best conditions and with the best of intentions, selecting relevant facts is a difficult task. And the option of simply waiting seems likely to result in further complications and criticism.",
   "citation": "Mark Fenwick, Wulf A. Kaal, Erik P. M. Vermeulen, Regulation Tomorrow What Happens When Technology Is Faster Than the Law (2017). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2834531",
   "datePublished": "2017",
   "claim_type": "failure",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": true,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "accelerating innovation cycles",
    "independent of agency capture"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "9cd875ebdb0266febbdcdabfca5b9b9f0de1b7ad9e3d5a8a5971bdbe469323b7",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2834531-034",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2834531-034",
   "text": "Data on the timing of investment is a reliable indicator of a technology's commercial maturity, because high levels of investor activity signal that the technology is about to be ready for commercial exploitation, which tells regulators when to intervene.",
   "abstract": "Data on the timing of investment appears to provide a reliable indicator of the commercial maturity of a technology, in the sense that high levels of investor activity indicate that a particular technology is about to be ready for commercial exploitation.",
   "citation": "Mark Fenwick, Wulf A. Kaal, Erik P. M. Vermeulen, Regulation Tomorrow What Happens When Technology Is Faster Than the Law (2017). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2834531",
   "datePublished": "2017",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "when early stage investments peak and later stage investments take off"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "9cd875ebdb0266febbdcdabfca5b9b9f0de1b7ad9e3d5a8a5971bdbe469323b7",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2957645-003",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2957645-003",
   "text": "Formal rulemaking in the existing regulatory infrastructure is too time consuming, and the speed of product innovation frequently renders regulations pertaining to an innovative product obsolete before those regulations are even finalized.",
   "abstract": "Formal rulemaking in the existing regulatory infrastructure is overly time-consuming7 and the speed of product innovation often makes regulations pertaining to an innovative product obsolete before such regulations are finalized.8",
   "citation": "Kaal, Dynamic Regulation via Contingent Capital (2017). SSRN: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2957645",
   "datePublished": "2017",
   "claim_type": "failure",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": true,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "environments of exponential or rapid product innovation",
    "formal notice and comment style rulemaking"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "250b10782a5ea5dece9235a7f711aee408feaf36f2e78e310d589b5ee6304be2",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/3002908-010",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:3002908-010",
   "text": "ESMA judged a regulatory response to blockchain premature because technological innovation was still evolving and blockchain's practical applications were still rather limited.",
   "abstract": "Because of the on- going evolution of technological innovation and blockchain's still rather limited practical applications, ESMA considered a regulatory response to the evolving technology premature.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Marco Dell'Erba, Blockchain Innovation in Private Investment Funds - A Comparative Analysis of the United States and (2017). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3002908",
   "datePublished": "2017",
   "claim_type": "empirical",
   "confidence": "evidenced",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "ESMA position as of the debate launched in June 2016"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "06a7b61e75f905ee07e422e875d83a65c5033a248a6e05a213523b034e5db534",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/3441904-029",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:3441904-029",
   "text": "Facts based, ex post, trial and error rulemaking with stable and presumptively optimal rules is incompatible with the needs of decentralized systems, because knowledge filters in at the edges of such systems and cannot be encapsulated in a timely fashion.",
   "abstract": "Centralized governance via stable and presumptively optimal rules in an environment of decentralized smart contracting and DAOs further exacerbates the shortcomings of stable and presumptively optimal rules in centralized structures.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Blockchain-Based Corporate Governance (2019). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3441904",
   "datePublished": "2019",
   "claim_type": "failure",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": true,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "decentralized smart contracting and DAO environments"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "e6b562527f7f19accaa35491db0a0db168b6a936755e1dca424e9f30bee7a815",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/3441904-030",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:3441904-030",
   "text": "The speed of smart contracting and associated DAO revisions will render regulations aimed at morphing decentralized systems obsolete before static centralized regulations are even finalized.",
   "abstract": "The speed of smart contracting and the associated DAO revisions will make regulations pertaining to morphing and evolving decentralized systems obsolete before static centralized regulations are finalized.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Blockchain-Based Corporate Governance (2019). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3441904",
   "datePublished": "2019",
   "claim_type": "predictive",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": true,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "formal centralized rulemaking processes",
    "rapidly morphing decentralized systems"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "e6b562527f7f19accaa35491db0a0db168b6a936755e1dca424e9f30bee7a815",
   "status": "current"
  },
  {
   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/4941807-001",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:4941807-001",
   "text": "Ex-post AI governance, in which regulation is applied only after AI systems have been developed and deployed or after large language models have already been pretrained on existing proprietary datasets, falls short of preemptively addressing the risks and biases those systems carry.",
   "abstract": "The traditional ex-post governance methods, where regulations are applied after AI systems are developed and deployed, or were pretrained LLMs models were trained on existing proprietary datasets, often fall short in preemptively addressing risks and biases.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, AI Governance Via Web3 Reputation System (2024). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4941807",
   "datePublished": "2024",
   "claim_type": "failure",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": true,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "when regulatory intervention occurs after development and deployment",
    "when pretrained models were trained on existing proprietary datasets"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "ab66c1e99a88da1fa36b0c6b536df5184231fe6aa427f3dd53287a4e0ac79853",
   "status": "current"
  }
 ],
 "description": "30 claims in the published works of Wulf A. Kaal carry the concept tag 'regulatory-timing'. Derived node: a roster, not an adjudicated definition."
}