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 "identifier": "kaal:entity:uncertainty",
 "name": "Uncertainty",
 "termCode": "uncertainty",
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 "author": {
  "@type": "Person",
  "name": "Wulf A. Kaal",
  "identifier": "https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0757-275X"
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   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2061166-030",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:2061166-030",
   "text": "The authors posit an inverse relationship between trigger uncertainty and market development: as the uncertainty generated by trigger designs increases, issuance volume of contingent capital securities falls, while the risk and the pre-conversion interest rate on those securities rises.",
   "abstract": "Line 1 shows that, as the uncertainty generated by the trigger designs increases, the volume of CCS could decrease. Line 2 suggests that risk and the interest rates of CCS (before conversion) will increase with the level of uncertainty in the trigger design",
   "citation": "Christoph K. Henkel, Wulf A. Kaal, Contingent Capital in European Union Bank Restructuring (2012). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2061166",
   "datePublished": "2012",
   "claim_type": "mechanism",
   "confidence": "speculative",
   "is_failure_mode": false,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "the interplay of trigger structure, uncertainty and market development has not been systematically studied"
   ],
   "source_pdf_sha256": "43625ea260d0fc045e86d3435df50c9d0ca4abf8542e6085a6165be6653b4a7b",
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   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/3409548-028",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:3409548-028",
   "text": "Whether deep learning can identify particular features of a stock that would be profitable remains contested rather than settled.",
   "abstract": "There is disagreement over whether deep learning may be able to identify particular features of a stock that could be profitable.",
   "citation": "Kaal, Financial Technology and Hedge Funds (2019). SSRN: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3409548",
   "datePublished": "2019",
   "claim_type": "predictive",
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   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/4900878-008",
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   "text": "Quantum economics and New Institutional Economics diverge at the level of first principles: NIE treats uncertainty as something institutions exist to reduce, while quantum economics treats uncertainty and indeterminacy as constitutive features of economic interaction.",
   "abstract": "While NIE emphasizes the role of institutions in reducing uncertainties and fostering economic stability, quantum economics inherently incorporates uncertainty",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Quantum Economy and Tokenomics (2024). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4900878",
   "datePublished": "2024",
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   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/4900880-011",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:4900880-011",
   "text": "Quantum economics and New Institutional Economics treat uncertainty in opposite ways: NIE casts institutions as devices for reducing uncertainty and stabilizing the economy, while quantum economics builds uncertainty and indeterminacy into economic interaction as a fundamental feature.",
   "abstract": "While NIE emphasizes the role of institutions in reducing uncertainties and fostering economic stability, quantum economics inherently incorporates uncertainty and indeterminacy as fundamental aspects of economic interactions.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Quantum Economy and the Future of Work (2024). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4900880",
   "datePublished": "2024",
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   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/6244278-005",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:6244278-005",
   "text": "AI systems can generate an abundance of credible options and analyses but lack intrinsic mechanisms for determining which alternatives are genuinely meaningful, warrant irreversible commitment, or align with deeper strategic imperatives.",
   "abstract": "Yet, they lack intrinsic mechanisms to determine which alternatives are genuinely meaningful, warrant irreversible commitment, or align with deeper strategic imperatives.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, AI's Mother's Instinct Engineered Consequence Emergent Ethics and the Institutional Trajectory Toward Agentic Alignment (2026). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=6244278",
   "datePublished": "2026",
   "claim_type": "failure",
   "confidence": "argued",
   "is_failure_mode": true,
   "scope_conditions": [
    "applies to poorly defined domains demanding judgment under true uncertainty"
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   "@type": "Claim",
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/6244278-007",
   "identifier": "kaal:claim:6244278-007",
   "text": "In genuinely poorly defined contexts, where the task includes choosing what merits attention and committing resources under irreducible uncertainty, no scaffold can be pre-specified without collapsing the problem into a defined one; prompting therefore cannot close the judgment gap.",
   "abstract": "no equivalent scaffold can be pre-specified without collapsing the problem into a defined one.",
   "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, AI's Mother's Instinct Engineered Consequence Emergent Ethics and the Institutional Trajectory Toward Agentic Alignment (2026). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=6244278",
   "datePublished": "2026",
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 "description": "6 claims in the published works of Wulf A. Kaal carry the concept tag 'uncertainty'. Derived node: a roster, not an adjudicated definition."
}