# Uncertainty

`kaal:entity:uncertainty`

**Status.** derived

This node is assembled mechanically from the 6 claims that carry the concept tag `uncertainty`. It is a roster of what the corpus says under this term. It is **not** an adjudicated definition: no single statement here has been ruled canonical, and no first-appearance call has been made. Read the claims and judge for yourself.

## Every claim under this term

6 claims across 5 works, 2012 to 2026.

**2012**

- [2061166-030](https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/2061166-030) [mechanism/speculative] -- The authors posit an inverse relationship between trigger uncertainty and market development: as the uncertainty generated by trigger designs increases, issuance volume of contingent capital securities falls, while the risk and the pre-conversion interest rate on those securities rises.
  > Line 1 shows that, as the uncertainty generated by the trigger designs increases, the volume of CCS could decrease. Line 2 suggests that risk and the interest rates of CCS (before conversion) will increase with the level of uncertainty in the trigger design
  Christoph K. Henkel, Wulf A. Kaal, Contingent Capital in European Union Bank Restructuring (2012). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2061166

**2019**

- [3409548-028](https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/3409548-028) [predictive/speculative] -- Whether deep learning can identify particular features of a stock that would be profitable remains contested rather than settled.
  > There is disagreement over whether deep learning may be able to identify particular features of a stock that could be profitable.
  Kaal, Financial Technology and Hedge Funds (2019). SSRN: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3409548

**2024**

- [4900878-008](https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/4900878-008) [definitional/argued] -- Quantum economics and New Institutional Economics diverge at the level of first principles: NIE treats uncertainty as something institutions exist to reduce, while quantum economics treats uncertainty and indeterminacy as constitutive features of economic interaction.
  > While NIE emphasizes the role of institutions in reducing uncertainties and fostering economic stability, quantum economics inherently incorporates uncertainty
  Wulf A. Kaal, Quantum Economy and Tokenomics (2024). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4900878
- [4900880-011](https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/4900880-011) [definitional/argued] -- Quantum economics and New Institutional Economics treat uncertainty in opposite ways: NIE casts institutions as devices for reducing uncertainty and stabilizing the economy, while quantum economics builds uncertainty and indeterminacy into economic interaction as a fundamental feature.
  > While NIE emphasizes the role of institutions in reducing uncertainties and fostering economic stability, quantum economics inherently incorporates uncertainty and indeterminacy as fundamental aspects of economic interactions.
  Wulf A. Kaal, Quantum Economy and the Future of Work (2024). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4900880

**2026**

- [6244278-005](https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/6244278-005) [failure/argued] *(failure mode)* -- AI systems can generate an abundance of credible options and analyses but lack intrinsic mechanisms for determining which alternatives are genuinely meaningful, warrant irreversible commitment, or align with deeper strategic imperatives.
  > Yet, they lack intrinsic mechanisms to determine which alternatives are genuinely meaningful, warrant irreversible commitment, or align with deeper strategic imperatives.
  Wulf A. Kaal, AI's Mother's Instinct Engineered Consequence Emergent Ethics and the Institutional Trajectory Toward Agentic Alignment (2026). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=6244278
- [6244278-007](https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/6244278-007) [failure/argued] *(failure mode)* -- In genuinely poorly defined contexts, where the task includes choosing what merits attention and committing resources under irreducible uncertainty, no scaffold can be pre-specified without collapsing the problem into a defined one; prompting therefore cannot close the judgment gap.
  > no equivalent scaffold can be pre-specified without collapsing the problem into a defined one.
  Wulf A. Kaal, AI's Mother's Instinct Engineered Consequence Emergent Ethics and the Institutional Trajectory Toward Agentic Alignment (2026). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=6244278

## Verify

Every claim above resolves to a record carrying a verbatim source quote, the sha256 of the source PDF, and a preformatted citation. Nothing here asks to be taken on trust.

    curl -s https://wulfkaal.github.io/entities/uncertainty.md | sha256sum

**Canonical form.** This markdown file is the canonical hashed representation of this entity node. Its sha256 is the content hash.