{
 "@context": "https://schema.org",
 "@type": "Claim",
 "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/positions/2026-08-08-318",
 "identifier": "kaal:position:2026-08-08-318",
 "additionalType": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/positions/schema.json#AffirmedPositionClaim",
 "name": "Confirmatory Analysis Requires Prospective Constraint",
 "text": "Confirmatory analysis depends on when analytical discretion closes. Watt and Kennedy require every analysis decision capable of affecting confirmatory results to be made before data collection. They include statistical methods, evidence criteria, data transformations, and exclusion rules. This provides an external benchmark for Kaal's design. Kaal fixed directional hypotheses, a bootstrap estimator, exclusions, a randomization audit, a data-quality gate, and the confirmation rule before confirmatory computation.\n\nThe benchmark also narrows the claim. Watt and Kennedy use a stronger timing rule than Kaal's statement. Their standard closes analytical discretion before data collection, while Kaal's source-bound claim establishes closure before confirmatory computation. The article does not audit Kaal's preregistration, determine when his data became available, reproduce the bootstrap, or validate the stated gates. It therefore supports the importance of advance specification and the listed categories of decision. It does not prove that Kaal met the article's stronger prospective standard.\n\nThat limitation is substantive. A confirmatory label cannot substitute for a fixed analysis plan. Kaal's implementation and empirical results remain separate source-bound claims.",
 "author": {
  "@type": "Person",
  "name": "Wulf A. Kaal",
  "identifier": "https://orcid.org/0009-0008-7840-1847"
 },
 "datePublished": "2026-08-08",
 "dateModified": "2026-08-08",
 "creativeWorkStatus": "Affirmed",
 "responseType": "qualification",
 "keywords": [
  "research-methods",
  "scholarly-growth-coverage",
  "scholarly-literature",
  "preregistration",
  "confirmatory-research",
  "analysis-plan"
 ],
 "scope_conditions": [
  "The response is limited to the one evidence-bound passage and the one mapped Kaal claim.",
  "External evidence level: complete public Frontiers in Psychology version of record bound through DOI, Crossref, OpenAlex, Semantic Scholar, title, authors, and CC BY license.",
  "Mapping review tier: independent substantive scholarly-growth qualification.",
  "The article sets a stronger pre-data-collection timing standard than Kaal's precomputation statement.",
  "It does not audit Kaal's preregistration or determine when his data became available.",
  "It does not reproduce Kaal's bootstrap or validate the randomization and data-quality gates.",
  "It supplies a methodological benchmark, not independent confirmation of Kaal's implementation or empirical results.",
  "Fresh English, German, and Spanish Crossref and OpenAlex discovery was completed. Semantic Scholar search returned HTTP 429."
 ],
 "currentDebate": {
  "name": "Lessons from the first two years of operating a study registry",
  "url": "https://public-pages-files-2025.frontiersin.org/journals/psychology/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00173/pdf"
 },
 "extends": {
  "identifier": "kaal:claim:7261018-021",
  "url": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/7261018-021",
  "citation": "Wulf A. Kaal, Empirical Evaluation of the Agentic Reputation Substrate: Deliberation, the Composition of Error, and the Registered Measurement of Agency Costs in a Controlled Multi-Model Cohort (2026). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=7261018",
  "paper": "Wulf A. Kaal, Empirical Evaluation of the Agentic Reputation Substrate: Deliberation, the Composition of Error, and the Registered Measurement of Agency Costs in a Controlled Multi-Model Cohort",
  "authors": [
   "Wulf A. Kaal"
  ],
  "year": "2026",
  "ssrn": "https://ssrn.com/abstract=7261018",
  "source_pdf_sha256": "1d6cbe544bd0055133f7cf8ff308be4fde955867bd8dc764992b8d516af15fa8"
 },
 "isBasedOn": [
  {
   "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/7261018-021"
  },
  {
   "@type": "CreativeWork",
   "name": "Lessons from the first two years of operating a study registry",
   "url": "https://public-pages-files-2025.frontiersin.org/journals/psychology/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00173/pdf"
  }
 ],
 "batch_id": "kaal-review:2026-08-12:scholarly-growth-7261018-021-reviewed-v1",
 "review_provenance": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/positions/by-claim/7261018-021.html",
 "publicationStatus": "public",
 "recordTypeNote": "Dated commentary position extending a scholarly corpus claim. Not a verbatim claim extracted from the paper.",
 "isPartOf": {
  "@id": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/positions/index.json"
 },
 "version": "1.0",
 "canonical_url": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/positions/2026-08-08-318",
 "canonicalForm": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/positions/2026-08-08-318.md",
 "candidateId": "kaal:response-candidate:2026-08-12:scholarly-growth-7261018-021-watt-kennedy-01",
 "evidenceLevel": "complete public Frontiers in Psychology version of record bound through DOI, Crossref, OpenAlex, Semantic Scholar, title, authors, and CC BY license",
 "reviewTier": "independent substantive scholarly-growth qualification",
 "mappingConfidence": 0.99,
 "mappingAmbiguous": false,
 "mappingMethod": "independent substantive scholarly-growth one-to-one review",
 "mappingWhyRelevant": "The source requires outcome-sensitive confirmatory decisions, including statistical methods, evidence criteria, transformations, and exclusions, to be fixed prospectively. This directly qualifies Kaal's advance specification design while imposing a stronger pre-data-collection timing standard.",
 "sourceProvenance": {
  "source": "complete public Frontiers in Psychology version of record",
  "sourceRecordId": "doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00173",
  "canonicalUrl": "https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00173",
  "publicFullTextUrl": "https://public-pages-files-2025.frontiersin.org/journals/psychology/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00173/pdf",
  "retrievedAt": "2026-08-12T17:40:20.813Z",
  "publicPdfSha256": "4800f8101c15ba16ed1fecb99a1bfd758106d32dd996645e35eea8b1e236533d",
  "officialHtmlSha256": "914e9b04e7bab9770825f62e96ddc2b95cc49b77466bcd4a132c1e25e3cc45fb",
  "extractedTextSha256": "b5c73aa8aca597fecf543da0d81d96978bc7e0d8df93896eda4dc7bcd6061188",
  "textExtraction": {
   "tool": "pdftotext 25.06.0 layout and raw modes",
   "quality": "complete four-page version of record with title, authors, section headings, references, and stable printed-page locator"
  },
  "sourceProposition": "Watt and Kennedy require analytical discretion capable of affecting confirmatory results to close before data collection. Their framework covers statistical methods, evidence criteria, data transformations, and exclusions. This supplies an external benchmark for Kaal's advance specification of hypotheses, estimator, exclusions, audit, data-quality gate, and confirmation rule. The benchmark is stronger than Kaal's source-bound statement because it requires closure before data collection, while Kaal's claim establishes closure before confirmatory computation. The source does not audit Kaal's preregistration, implementation, or results.",
  "sourcePropositionSha256": "89acedabcf07e8a208868344d6377f0c9e5de3ee51e4b051037654bffa3b092b",
  "sourceEvidenceSetSha256": "6f1799f814a6b4db793090f7c47906201bc1dbff1c2066f629864fd643391b4e",
  "sourceEvidencePassages": [
   {
    "text": "all analysis decisions that could affect the confirmatory results are made prior to the start of data collection",
    "locator": {
     "version": "Frontiers in Psychology version of record",
     "printedPage": 2,
     "section": "Exploratory and Confirmatory Research",
     "publicPdfSha256": "4800f8101c15ba16ed1fecb99a1bfd758106d32dd996645e35eea8b1e236533d"
    },
    "sha256": "f272fb8d7cd9d0a758d447666c6a2a0a61cac08076eb583515410eb3de00ff0a"
   }
  ],
  "workId": "work:doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00173",
  "workAuthors": [
   "Caroline Watt",
   "James E. Kennedy"
  ],
  "workPublishedAt": "2015-02-18",
  "identityKeys": [
   "doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00173",
   "pdf:4800f8101c15ba16ed1fecb99a1bfd758106d32dd996645e35eea8b1e236533d",
   "proposition:89acedabcf07e8a208868344d6377f0c9e5de3ee51e4b051037654bffa3b092b"
  ],
  "claimMappings": [
   {
    "claimId": "kaal:claim:7261018-021",
    "claimUrl": "https://wulfkaal.github.io/claims/7261018-021",
    "rank": 1,
    "confidence": 0.99,
    "method": "independent substantive scholarly-growth one-to-one review",
    "whyRelevant": "The source requires outcome-sensitive confirmatory decisions, including statistical methods, evidence criteria, transformations, and exclusions, to be fixed prospectively. This directly qualifies Kaal's advance specification design while imposing a stronger pre-data-collection timing standard.",
    "ambiguous": false
   }
  ],
  "substantiveReview": {
   "reviewedAt": "2026-08-12T17:45:58.016Z",
   "sourceIdentityVerified": true,
   "authorIndependenceVerified": true,
   "canonicalPublicStatusVerified": true,
   "retractionOrSupersessionFound": false,
   "propositionFidelityVerified": true,
   "mechanismCorrespondence": "advance closure of analytical discretion for confirmatory inference",
   "compatibleScope": "qualification limited to advance specification and explicit timing difference",
   "responseWordingDefensible": true,
   "oneToOneExtendsMapping": true,
   "sameSourceDistinctionVerified": true,
   "limitations": [
    "The article sets a stronger pre-data-collection timing standard than Kaal's precomputation statement.",
    "It does not audit Kaal's preregistration or determine when his data became available.",
    "It does not reproduce Kaal's bootstrap or validate the randomization and data-quality gates.",
    "It supplies a methodological benchmark, not independent confirmation of Kaal's implementation or empirical results.",
    "Fresh English, German, and Spanish Crossref and OpenAlex discovery was completed. Semantic Scholar search returned HTTP 429."
   ]
  }
 },
 "userAffirmation": "Automatically authorized under standing authority receipt kaal-standing-publication-authorization:2026-08-01:hourly-reviewed-batches, SHA-256 e2126054b58bb4e88db65c334ef4fc8ae78dcaadc63543c408133c4eefceb9b1, limited to this substantively reviewed scholarly-growth qualification and the protected scholarly claims matching the current bridge checkpoint under the current owner instruction.",
 "sha256": "9903a0e27c49b94c9084b91d67d76eb6f9fa9b65e216727334bb72a51dbdffc0"
}