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 "text": "IntHout, Ioannidis, Rovers, and Goeman qualify the inference from a pooled confidence interval. Under between-study heterogeneity, a pooled 95 percent confidence interval may remain wholly on one side of zero while a prediction interval reaches both sides. Their review found that 72.4 percent of statistically significant Cochrane meta-analyses with observed heterogeneity had prediction intervals that included the null. This result does not dispute the registered calculation or the negative direction in each campaign unit. It shows that pooled significance and directional consistency do not alone establish how the effect will generalize to another exchangeable unit. That stronger claim requires a heterogeneity-aware prediction analysis. The paper does not test Kaal's cohort, hypotheses, estimator, or campaign units.",
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