Qualification: Statistical tests, P values, confidence intervals, and power: a guide to misinterpretations

Record: kaal:position:2026-08-08-359 · 2026-08-08

Greenland and coauthors provide an interpretation boundary for the reported interval. Their framework treats an interval as a model-dependent summary of effect sizes that remain more compatible with the data than values outside the range. Kaal reports an aggregate selection slope of 0.0685 and an uncertainty interval from -0.0568 to 0.2020. The range spans negative, null, and positive slopes. It therefore does not fix the direction of the selection trajectory at the interim checkpoint. The qualification is methodological. Greenland and coauthors analyze confidence intervals and the assumptions that support them. They do not identify Kaal's interval construction, recalculate the slope, inspect the registered estimator, or audit the underlying E2B record. Kaal's source separately classifies the interim estimates as inconclusive. The numerical result remains source-bound.

Affirmed commentary position. This record extends a source-bound scholarly claim but is not a verbatim paper claim.
Holds when
Current debate

Statistical tests, P values, confidence intervals, and power: a guide to misinterpretations

Scholarly basis

kaal:claim:7261481-024
Wulf A. Kaal, Computative Economics: A Framework for Economic Analysis under Computational Abundance (2026). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=7261481
Source PDF sha256: 78c42db521624f7398717732a7fa51a6e3157a5adf02a2e09fbab15e0cf920d9

Evidence and mapping

Evidence: complete public peer-reviewed article in Europe PMC JATS XML with concordant Crossref and Europe PMC identity
Review tier: independent substantive scholarly-growth qualification
Mapping confidence: 0.96
Mapping ambiguous: false

Topics

research-methodsai-and-agentsscholarly-growth-coveragescholarly-literaturestatistical-inferenceinterval-estimationuncertaintyevidence-provenance

Provenance

Affirmed in kaal-review:2026-08-13:scholarly-growth-7261481-024-reviewed-v2 on 2026-08-08. Review record.

Verify

Canonical markdown sha256: 85806f3c5883e08545040e8044e5a230e38d2dddf1403fbf07d8759d4bb2c79d
curl -s https://wulfkaal.github.io/positions/2026-08-08-359.md | sha256sum