kaal:claim:5541658-008

Prediction on a test set of existing judgments is not the same task as predicting outcomes for a party mid-litigation, because the precise formulation of facts used by such models emerges only once the judgment has been issued.

for instance, a lawyer advising a client on the probable outcome of a court hearing—does not have access to the precise formulation of facts presented in a judgment, as this formulation emerges only once the judgment has been issued.

Wulf A. Kaal, Morgan A. Gray, The Evolving Role of Artificial Intelligence in Law (2025), A. Machine Learning Algorithms, p. 15
https://ssrn.com/abstract=5541658 · source PDF

Wulf A. Kaal, Morgan A. Gray, The Evolving Role of Artificial Intelligence in Law (2025). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5541658

• legal judgment prediction systems trained and evaluated on published judgments

failuresupport: arguedfailure: judgment leakage in outcome predictionfamily: research-design-limitationlaw-and-legal-systemseconomicsresearch-methods

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